If you’ve ever wondered how much can be disclosed about individual circumstance1 by analyzing aggregate user data, then this seminal piece by Charles Duhigg for the New York Times is a must read.
As Pole’s computers crawled through the data, he was able to identify about 25 products that, when analyzed together, allowed him to assign each shopper a “pregnancy prediction” score. More important, he could also estimate her due date to within a small window, so Target could send coupons timed to very specific stages of her pregnancy.
The gist: Target can offer baby related products to customers, sometimes even before the immediate family knows of the pregnancy.
“My daughter got this in the mail!” he said. “She’s still in high school, and you’re sending her coupons for baby clothes and cribs? Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?”
The manager didn’t have any idea what the man was talking about. He looked at the mailer. Sure enough, it was addressed to the man’s daughter and contained advertisements for maternity clothing, nursery furniture and pictures of smiling infants. The manager apologized and then called a few days later to apologize again.
On the phone, though, the father was somewhat abashed. “I had a talk with my daughter,” he said. “It turns out there’s been some activities in my house I haven’t been completely aware of. She’s due in August. I owe you an apology.”
We should keep in mind that, with all the discussions about Do-Not-Track and Address Books, data gathering and analysis is wide-spread, is being used and is not happening strictly online. Further, with more and more signals being picked up and available for analysis, the potential for finding valuable patterns increases tremendously.
But it is really the part about pattern formation that’s the most interesting. Nobody says, it should only be companies that collect this information about us. Analysing that data for our own benefit2 should enable us to develop habits that we find beneficial.
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